- On ASFA's own 25-year horizon, ASFA's single lump sum is genuinely conservative. Our simulation finds singles at 67 need $310,000 at the median and $480,000 in the worst 10% of historical periods — $115,000 below ASFA's $595,000 even in tough markets. ASFA's figure includes a meaningful buffer.
- ASFA's couples figure is similarly conservative for age-67 retirement — our simulation finds couples need $380,000 at the median and $565,000 in tough markets, compared to ASFA's $690,000.
- ASFA's figures are calculated for age-67 and become inadequate for earlier retirement. A couple retiring at 60 on a matching 32-year horizon needs $695,000 at the median — already above ASFA's $690,000 — and $955,000 in the worst 10% of markets.
- Retiring at 60 instead of 67 costs a single person an extra $215,000 in typical markets ($525,000 vs $310,000). The seven years before Age Pension eligibility — which covers 58% of the comfortable income — must be fully self-funded from super.
- The modest standard at 67 needs virtually no super at the median. The gap between the full Age Pension and the modest standard is under $5,000/yr. Small caveats apply — financial assets outside super are subject to deeming rules and the Centrelink assets test, which could reduce pension entitlement for some retirees.
Methodology: why like-for-like comparison matters
ASFA (the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia) publishes its retirement lump sum figures using a 25-year planning period — age 67 to 92. To compare our simulation results to ASFA's figures, we use the same terminal age. Earlier retirement ages use proportionally longer horizons: age 65 uses 27 years (to 92), age 60 uses 32 years (to 92).
Rather than assuming a fixed average return, our engine tests each scenario against every historical market sequence since 1928 — 66–73 valid start years per scenario. Each year applies real (inflation-adjusted) returns, annual fees, and an Age Pension calculation updated for the current balance. The result is a distribution: median (typical markets) and 10th percentile (tough markets — the worst 10% of historical sequences).
"ASFA's figures are not wrong — they are genuinely conservative for age-67 retirees, sitting above even our tough-market estimate. What they don't tell you is what happens when you retire earlier. ASFA's $690,000 couples figure approximates the median requirement for age-60 retirement — not the safe target."
— SuperCalc Pro analysis, April 2026The benchmarks
| Standard | Single / yr | Couple / yr | ASFA lump sum — single | ASFA lump sum — couple |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comfortable | $52,085 | $73,337 | $595,000 | $690,000 |
| Modest | $33,134 | $47,789 | Not published | Not published |
| Age Pension (homeowner, no other assets): single ~$28,514/yr · couple ~$43,036/yr · eligible from age 67 | ||||
Key findings — visual summary
Charts available for media use. Contact hello@supercalcpro.com.au for high-resolution files.
What historical simulation finds — on matched horizons
All planning horizons terminate at age 92, matching ASFA's methodology. The simulation tests every valid historical start year from 1928 to 2025.
- Typical markets (median): sufficient in half of all historical start years. Half of periods were easier, half harder.
- Tough markets (p10): sufficient in the worst 10% of historical periods — the resilience standard a conservative plan should meet.
| Standard | Income target | Typical markets (median) |
Tough markets (worst 10%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Singles retiring at 67 — 25-year horizon (age 67–92) · 73 historical periods · ASFA-comparable | |||
| Comfortable | $52,085/yr | $310,000 | $480,000 |
| Modest | $33,134/yr | Pension-funded † | Pension-funded † |
| Couples retiring at 67 — 25-year horizon (age 67–92) · 73 historical periods · ASFA-comparable | |||
| Comfortable | $73,337/yr | $380,000 | $565,000 |
| Modest | $47,789/yr | Pension-funded † | Pension-funded † |
| Singles retiring at 65 — 27-year horizon (age 65–92) · 71 historical periods | |||
| Comfortable | $52,085/yr | $385,000 | $560,000 |
| Modest | $33,134/yr | <$100,000 | $110,000 |
| Couples retiring at 65 — 27-year horizon (age 65–92) · 71 historical periods | |||
| Comfortable | $73,337/yr | $490,000 | $690,000 |
| Modest | $47,789/yr | $115,000 | $130,000 |
| Singles retiring at 60 — 32-year horizon (age 60–92) · 66 historical periods | |||
| Comfortable | $52,085/yr | $525,000 | $720,000 |
| Modest | $33,134/yr | $220,000 | $285,000 |
| Couples retiring at 60 — 32-year horizon (age 60–92) · 66 historical periods | |||
| Comfortable | $73,337/yr | $695,000 | $955,000 |
| Modest | $47,789/yr | $300,000 | $395,000 |
The modest standard figures for couples retiring at 60 are worth noting for lower-balance households: $300,000 is needed at the median just to sustain $47,789/yr to age 92. Even a modest lifestyle requires meaningful super when retiring seven years before the pension begins.
How our simulation compares to ASFA
The table below compares directly on the same ground: age 67, comfortable standard, 25-year horizon to age 92.
| Profile | Median needed | Tough markets (p10) | ASFA lump sum | ASFA vs p10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single, age 67 | $310,000 | $480,000 | $595,000 | +$115,000 above p10 |
| Couple, age 67 | $380,000 | $565,000 | $690,000 | +$125,000 above p10 |
ASFA's figures sit $115,000–$125,000 above the worst-10% historical requirement. They are conservative — not merely "approximately right." The gap between ASFA and the median ($285,000 single, $310,000 couple) reflects the dynamic Age Pension offset: as super depletes, pension entitlement increases, sustaining income at lower starting balances than ASFA's static model implies.
The cost of retiring before 67: single, comfortable standard
Retirement age is the dominant variable — more influential than investment strategy for most people. All horizons end at age 92.
| Retire at | Horizon | Typical markets | Tough markets (p10) | Extra vs age 67 (median) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age 60 | 32 years | $525,000 | $720,000 | +$215,000 |
| Age 65 | 27 years | $385,000 | $560,000 | +$75,000 |
| Age 67 | 25 years | $310,000 | $480,000 | — |
"Each year you retire before 67 is a year the Age Pension — which covers 58% of the comfortable income target — must be replaced entirely from super. The $215,000 premium for retiring at 60 rather than 67 is not a planning curiosity. It is the cost of seven years without that offset."
— SuperCalc Pro analysis, April 2026Methodology
- Simulation engine: SuperCalc Pro historical sequence simulation — the same engine used in the public Advanced Calculator. Code is unchanged between calculator use and this report.
- Historical data: Annual market returns and CPI inflation 1928–2025, five asset classes (AU shares, US equities, international equities, bonds/fixed income, cash); publicly available long-run data series.
- Portfolio: APRA MySuper average allocation (June 2025): 23% AU shares, 19% US equities, 21% international equities, 31% bonds/fixed income, 6% cash.
- Returns: Nominal returns deflated by annual CPI to real terms. All income targets and figures in 2026 dollars.
- Fees: Investment management 0.5% p.a.; administration $52/yr + 0.10% of balance capped at $350/yr; indirect cost ratio 0.08% p.a.
- Planning horizon: All scenarios terminate at age 92 — matching ASFA's published methodology. Age 67 = 25 years; age 65 = 27 years; age 60 = 32 years.
- Age Pension: Applied annually from age 67 under the Centrelink assets test. Rate recalculated each year based on remaining super balance. No other assessable assets modelled. Singles: nil partner assets. Couples: combined balance, couple pension rates.
- Profiles: Single homeowner; couple (both homeowners); no other assessable assets; no preservation age constraint (all scenarios age 60+).
- Income target: ASFA Retirement Standard, March quarter 2026. Income held constant in real terms.
- Method: Binary search for the minimum starting balance at which the target income is sustainable in each historical sequence; results sorted; median = 50th percentile, p10 = 10th percentile.
- Periods tested: 66–73 valid historical start years per scenario, depending on horizon (e.g. age 67, 25-year horizon: start years 1928–2000 = 73 periods).
- Not modelled: Rent/housing costs (homeowner assumed); healthcare beyond standard living expenses; SMSF costs; non-super assets; partner age differences for couples; transition-to-retirement strategies; estate planning.
These are population benchmarks. Your number is different.
Couple status, homeownership, other assets, exact retirement age, and market timing all shift the outcome materially. The Advanced Calculator models your specific situation against the same 73 historical sequences.
Model your own scenario